MLS Picks, Odds Week 30 - Seattle Sounders vs Austin FC, Nashville vs LA Galaxy & More

2022-09-10 02:16:00 By : Mr. Addison Xu

by Ryan Metivier in Soccer

MLS Week 30 kicks off on Friday night between Montreal and Columbus and then gets into a huge slate of 13 games all on Saturday. With most teams all down to their final few games, the playoff races are truly heating up and we’re hoping our MLS picks can stay hot as well.

Our strategy of backing goals in most MLS games has been paying off lately and last week was a nice 3-1 week. Unfortunately in the lone midweek game on Wednesday between NYCFC and Cincinnati, we came up one goal short of our both to score and Over bet when the teams drew 1-1.

Read on for the odds and our MLS picks for this weekend below.

Odds from Barstool Sportsbook on Sept 2. Be sure to check out this Barstool Sportsbook promo code that offers a unique bonus for new customers to bet on MLS

The odds above show that this weekend’s biggest favorites are the Philadelphia Union at home over recent US Open Cup champs Orlando City at -200 odds. FC Cincinnati are also strong home favs over the Earthquakes, but given their propensity for draws, the +335 odds are certainly appealing. LAFC are the shortest road favorites at +120 odds.

Celebrations were in order for @OrlandoCitySC after the win in the #USOC2022 final.

"Big things" are possible after winning the club's first trophy. 🏆

— Major League Soccer (@MLS) September 9, 2022

Cincy is one of just two teams entering MLS Week 30 off a short week. They played in New York on Wednesday and drew 1-1. The score was tied at half-time and despite a crossbar, an almost penalty overturned by VAR and New York being reduced to ten men, neither team could find a second goal.

Gaining that single point, despite the absence of Luciano Acosta (yellow card accumulation), was still enough to lift FCC into sole possession of the final Easter Conference playoff position with 39 points. But it extends a concerning trend that sees them unable to turn decent performances into wins. Cincinnati has just three wins in their past 15 games. That’s the bad news. The good news is that they have just one defeat in those 15. So … that’s 11 draws in 15 games. Anyone blindly backing an FCC draw bet the past few months would have made a killing.

To a lesser extent, anyone backing goals in FCC games would also be doing alright. Both teams to score has cashed in 12 of those 15 and in 15/18.

San Jose last played at home to Vancouver on Sunday, a 2-0 win. The playoffs are out of reach for the Earthquakes, sitting 13th in the West with just 30 points. However, they’ve still won two of their past three, including a 2-1 home win over LAFC on August 22. Still, both of those wins came at home. On the road, San Jose is an abysmal 1-4-9, scoring 18 and conceding 32. They’ve given up multiple goals on the road in 6/7 and in 11/14 on the year. Home or away, last week’s clean sheet was their first in 13 games, But home or away, the Quakes have at least scored a goal in 9/12.

Jeremy Ebobisse is still having a career year with 15 goals and the Quakes have produced an xG of 0.8 or higher in 11/12 games.

I don’t trust either to win in my MLS picks, but we should see some goals.

Pick: Both to score & over 2.5  (-130); 1 unit

It’s now or never for the Sounders who are looking to keep alive a streak that has seen them make the playoffs in all 13 years of their existence. Now in their 14th season, that streak is at risk of ending as they are six points back of the final playoff spot with just five games to go. They did their best last week with a 2-1 home win over the Houston Dynamo.

"It's a super strike!"

Nouhou's assist + @_fredymontero's goal is the @EQCasino Play of the Match from #SEAvHOU! ✊ pic.twitter.com/bvDu39zVDz

— Seattle Sounders FC (@SoundersFC) September 7, 2022

Austin’s hopes of catching LAFC for the top spot in the West look to be dashed after dropping two in a row and three of four. They’re nine points back of LAFC and also five points above third-place Dallas.

It was 1-1 in Austin earlier this year. Last season the teams drew 0-0 in Seattle and the Sounders won 1-0 in Austin. So the Under certainly could be in play if we look historically.

However,  this is this season and the stakes are higher than ever now into the final weeks of the season. Seattle may only be 17-12 to the Over this season, but the Over is 6-0 in their past six and 8-1 in their past nine. Seattle has conceded in 11/12 but scored in nine straight. Both to score and the Over has cashed in each of their past six.

Major moves have been made, Hany Mukhtar with that top spot.👀

Race to the Golden Boot // @Audi pic.twitter.com/MO3TcTWr1E

— Major League Soccer (@MLS) September 8, 2022

Austin has played to the Over all season long and top the conference at 21-8 to Over 2.5 totals. The Over is on a 6-0 run in their past six, and is 10-2 in their past 12. The Verde and Black had a streak of 18 games in a row scoring a goal snapped last week, losing 3-0 in Nashville. With the second-highest scoring offense in the league, and MVP candidate Sebastian Driussi sitting just one goal back in the Golden Boot race, it’s unlikely they don’t get back on the scoresheet soon and often.

Pick: Both teams to score & over 2.5 (-117); 1 unit

Let’s jump back to Saturday and bet this two-team MLS parlay in our MLS picks.

It’s unlikely either of these teams makes the playoffs at this point, but both are still technically alive. Toronto is five points back of seventh with 34 points, while Atlanta is just behind with 33. However, TFC has played an extra game at 30, one of very few teams in the East to have already played 30. Atlanta has played 29. Toronto’s playoff hopes took a serious blow after giving away an early 2-0 lead over Montreal and losing 4-3. Atlanta has lost two in a row, including a 2-1 setback to Portland last week. Both teams have won just once in five games.

Josef Martínez has been suspended one week by Atlanta United for "conduct detrimental to the team” which included “flipping over a table full of chicken and rice in the locker room,” per @MLSist, @FelipeCar 🍗🍚 pic.twitter.com/tKm5mQKyKO

— B/R Football (@brfootball) September 7, 2022

It was 2-1 Toronto back in June in the last meeting. Overall a bet on both teams scoring and Over 2.5 has hit in 6/7 recent TFC matches. It’s hit in seven straight for the Five Stripes. Some key players may be missing both in this game. Toronto’s Lorenzo Insigne could miss out with a “personal family situation”. For Atlanta, Josef Martinez was suspended by his own team for “conduct detrimental to the team.” He hasn’t been a 90-minute player though for ATL for much of the season though.

These teams have cleaned up for Over bettors this whole season with Atlanta 22-7 and Toronto at 20-10 to Over 2.5 totals. You could simply back both to score and the Over at -150 odds. But if you’re looking to get a little closer to even-money in your MLS picks, throw in a goal in this next game.

Nashville is suddenly hot and at just the right time. After four straight wins where they’ve won 4-0, 3-0, 4-1 and 3-0, the Yotes are fourth in the West with 45 points. They’re six points above the Galaxy who are in eighth place and outside of the playoff picture. Hany Mukhtar is coming off a brace and hat-trick in his last two games and is making a legitimate case for league MVP. He’s now scored eight goals in his past five games. Los Angeles isn’t in bad form themselves, having run undefeated in five games. But needing an 85′ minute penalty to draw 2-2 with SKC last week will be seen as a letdown.

The MVP race is on! 🔥

With one month to go, who is your pick? https://t.co/yyhCHRqoXz pic.twitter.com/JWw4obdP9H

— Major League Soccer (@MLS) September 7, 2022

Galaxy matches have been filled with goals of late with scorelines reading, 2-2, 2-2, 2-1, 3-3, 5-2 and 4-2 in their past six. They haven’t kept a clean sheet on the road in seven games. This game could feature goals too, though it was only 1-0 LA earlier this year and Nashville’s defense has been airtight of late. I do see the Yotes getting on the scoresheet though in this one.

Parlay Picks: Atlanta vs Toronto both to score & over 2.5 / Nashville to score (-118); 1 unit

We’ve got one more two-teamer here where we’re going to back both teams scoring in each game for our MLS picks.

There’s little on the line when these two meet up at 8:30 pm EST with Houston 14th and SKC 12th in the Western Conference. So why worry about defense? Neither has been capable of keeping things tight at the back all season. Only three teams have allowed more goals than SKC’s 51. Only six have conceded more than Houston’s 48.

At 20-9, the Dynamo are one of the highest-rated Over teams this season. A 2-1 loss in Seattle last weekend cost first-year head coach Paulo Nagamura his job on Tuesday. The Dynamo have just one win in eight and how they respond to Dynamo 2 head coach Kenny Bundy in the interim is anyone’s guess. But despite the losses, the Dynamo have been scoring, with goals in 14/15. Both teams have scored in 12/13 of their recent matches. That should continue against SKC.

We have parted ways with Paulo Nagamura, Jimmy Nielsen, and Chris Martinez.@houstondynamo2 Head Coach Kenny Bundy will serve as the interim head coach until the end of the MLS season while the search for a new head coach is underway.

— Houston Dynamo FC (@HoustonDynamo) September 5, 2022

Sporting may be going through a late-season surge at 3-1-1 in their past five, but they’ve still conceded a goal in 17/18. On the road, they’ve kept just one clean sheet in 15 games. Sporting KC has won each meeting this season, once in MLS and once in the US Open Cup, with both coming in Kansas City. They’ve now won four in a row over the Dynamo. However, Houston has scored in each of their last four at home against SKC.

From two teams out of the playoffs. to two teams with legitimate playoff aspirations. Minnesota has dropped two straight but sits fifth in the West with 44 points, just ahead of Portland in sixth with 42 points, who are riding a three-match win streak.

The teams drew 4-4 back in July, a wild match that saw the Loons leading 3-1, falling behind 4-3 and then tieing the game 4-4. Luis Amarilla and Sebastian Blanco each scored a brace for their respective sides. The Loons have a major injury concern though with Emanuel Reynoso injuring his ankle last weekend and being a doubt to play on Saturday.

Even without that earlier 4-4 draw, I have to look at goals here in my MLS picks. Portland has seen both teams scoring in ten straight and in 23/30 this season.

The Over is 5-0 in their past five. Meanwhile, the Loons have been shut out in their past two games, but they were 8-2-1 in the 11 prior. The Over has cashed in eight straight Minnesota matches and also in 13/15.

Parlay Picks: Houston vs SKC both to score / Portland vs Minnesota both to score (+145); 1 unit at Caesars Sportsbook

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Ryan is SBD's resident soccer pro, though his repertoire is by no means limited to a single sport. His articles have been published by the Canadian Hockey League (CHL), Ontario Hockey League (OHL), and the Kitchener Rangers, and outlets like SportsXpress and Shredthespread.com

Ryan is SBD's resident soccer pro, though his repertoire is by no means limited to a single sport. His articles have been published by the Canadian Hockey League (CHL), Ontario Hockey League (OHL), and the Kitchener Rangers, and outlets like SportsXpress and Shredthespread.com

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